Operations manual for optimising system dynamics models using genetic algorithms
نویسنده
چکیده
System dynamics models provide a detailed mathematical description of the complex interactions between numerous variables. Software packages, such as iThink and Vensim, allow policy makers to easily adapt, implement and explore these models. By testing various scenarios through an analysis of the model with different parameter values it is possible to investigate and visualise the long-term effects of changes that could be implemented over the short-term. Genetic algorithms (GA) are shown to provide an efficient and accurate method for identifying optimal scenarios from among the vast number of possible scenarios that are available. The combination of the GA parameter search and human intuition can be utilised to arrive at better strategies for government policy. This approach to optimisation is demonstrated using a model of the malaria-control program in Bolivia. ∗ Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PJ, UK Email address: [email protected] (Patrick E. McSharry). Preprint submitted to World Bank Report 27 June 2004
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